Avoidable flaws in observational analyses: an application to statins and cancer

The increasing availability of large healthcare databases is fueling an intense debate on whether real-world data should play a role in the assessment of the benefit–risk of medical treatments. In many observational studies, for example, statin users were found to have a substantially lower risk of cancer than in meta-analyses of randomized trials. Although such discrepancies are often attributed to a lack of randomization in the observational studies, they might be explained by flaws that can be avoided by explicitly emulating a target trial (the randomized trial that would answer the question of interest). Using the electronic health records of 733,804 UK adults, we emulated a target trial of statins and cancer and compared our estimates with those obtained using previously applied analytic approaches. Over the 10-yr follow-up, 28,408 individuals developed cancer. Under the target trial approach, estimated observational analogs of intention-to-treat and per-protocol 10-yr cancer-free survival differences were −0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) −1.0%, 0.0%) and −0.3% (95% CI −1.5%, 0.5%), respectively. By contrast, previous analytic approaches yielded estimates that appeared to be strongly protective. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly emulating a target trial to reduce bias in the effect estimates derived from observational analyses

Reducing bias through directed acyclic graphs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of most biomedical research is to determine an unbiased estimate of effect for an exposure on an outcome, i.e. to make causal inferences about the exposure. Recent developments in epidemiology have shown that traditional methods of identifying confounding and adjusting for confounding may be inadequate.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The traditional methods of adjusting for "potential confounders" may introduce conditional associations and bias rather than minimize it. Although previous published articles have discussed the role of the causal directed acyclic graph approach (DAGs) with respect to confounding, many clinical problems require complicated DAGs and therefore investigators may continue to use traditional practices because they do not have the tools necessary to properly use the DAG approach. The purpose of this manuscript is to demonstrate a simple 6-step approach to the use of DAGs, and also to explain why the method works from a conceptual point of view.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Using the simple 6-step DAG approach to confounding and selection bias discussed is likely to reduce the degree of bias for the effect estimate in the chosen statistical model.</p

Lipid Adjustment in the Analysis of Environmental Contaminants and Human Health Risks

The literature on exposure to lipophilic agents such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) is conflicting, posing challenges for the interpretation of potential human health risks. Laboratory variation in quantifying PCBs may account for some of the conflicting study results. For example, for quantification purposes, blood is often used as a proxy for adipose tissue, which makes it necessary to model serum lipids when assessing health risks of PCBs. Using a simulation study, we evaluated four statistical models (unadjusted, standardized, adjusted, and two-stage) for the analysis of PCB exposure, serum lipids, and health outcome risk (breast cancer). We applied eight candidate true causal scenarios, depicted by directed acyclic graphs, to illustrate the ramifications of misspecification of underlying assumptions when interpreting results. Statistical models that deviated from underlying causal assumptions generated biased results. Lipid standardization, or the division of serum concentrations by serum lipids, was observed to be highly prone to bias. We conclude that investigators must consider biology, biologic medium (e.g., nonfasting blood samples), laboratory measurement, and other underlying modeling assumptions when devising a statistical plan for assessing health outcomes in relation to environmental exposures

Principled Selection of Baseline Covariates to Account for Censoring in Randomized Trials with a Survival Endpoint

The analysis of randomized trials with time-to-event endpoints is nearly always plagued by the problem of censoring. As the censoring mechanism is usually unknown, analyses typically employ the assumption of non-informative censoring. While this assumption usually becomes more plausible as more baseline covariates are being adjusted for, such adjustment also raises concerns. Pre-specification of which covariates will be adjusted for (and how) is difficult, thus prompting the use of data-driven variable selection procedures, which may impede valid inferences to be drawn. The adjustment for covariates moreover adds concerns about model misspecification, and the fact that each change in adjustment set, also changes the censoring assumption and the treatment effect estimand. In this paper, we discuss these concerns and propose a simple variable selection strategy that aims to produce a valid test of the null in large samples. The proposal can be implemented using off-the-shelf software for (penalized) Cox regression, and is empirically found to work well in simulation studies and real data analyses

Identificación de cascadas de prescripción en tratamientos farmacológicos de población mayor de 65 años en la provincia de Guadalajara (España)

En este trabajo se describen y evaluan las posibles cascadas de prescripción de medicamentos  en  la población mayor de 65 años en la provincia de Guadalajara (España). La muestra de pacientes estudiada está polimedicada con una media de 8 medicamentos por paciente y dia. En esta población los fármacos más prescritos son, por este orden: paracetamol, omeprazol, lactulosa, cianocobalamina y furosemida. En la prescripción de fármacos se han encontrado algunas asociaciones que guardan una relación estadísticamente significativa: omeprazol y prescripción de vitamina B12, se ha detectado en tres ancianos de cada diez que toman omeprazol. Igualmente se ha evidenciado la relación entre el uso de  paracetamol y prescripción de preparados de calcio, que afecta a casi uno de cada cuatro ancianos que consume paracetamol, la relación entre el consumo de omeprazol y preparados de calcio, que afecta al 19% , la relación furosemida con preparados de calcio afectando al 47,9% de los pacientes en tratamiento con furosemida y la relación metformina- vitamina B12 afectando casi al 38% de los pacientes que consumen metformina y casi al 6% de la población estudiada.      

Identificación de cascadas de prescripción en tratamientos farmacológicos de población mayor de 65 años en la provincia de Guadalajara (España)

En este trabajo se describen y evaluan las posibles cascadas de prescripción de medicamentos  en  la población mayor de 65 años en la provincia de Guadalajara (España). La muestra de pacientes estudiada está polimedicada con una media de 8 medicamentos por paciente y dia. En esta población los fármacos más prescritos son, por este orden: paracetamol, omeprazol, lactulosa, cianocobalamina y furosemida. En la prescripción de fármacos se han encontrado algunas asociaciones que guardan una relación estadísticamente significativa: omeprazol y prescripción de vitamina B12, se ha detectado en tres ancianos de cada diez que toman omeprazol. Igualmente se ha evidenciado la relación entre el uso de  paracetamol y prescripción de preparados de calcio, que afecta a casi uno de cada cuatro ancianos que consume paracetamol, la relación entre el consumo de omeprazol y preparados de calcio, que afecta al 19% , la relación furosemida con preparados de calcio afectando al 47,9% de los pacientes en tratamiento con furosemida y la relación metformina- vitamina B12 afectando casi al 38% de los pacientes que consumen metformina y casi al 6% de la población estudiada.      

Selection of confounding variables should not be based on observed associations with exposure

In observational studies, selection of confounding variables for adjustment is often based on observed baseline incomparability. The aim of this study was to evaluate this selection strategy. We used clinical data on the effects of inhaled long-acting beta-agonist (LABA) use on the risk of mortality among patients with obstructive pulmonary disease to illustrate the impact of selection of confounding variables for adjustment based on baseline comparisons. Among 2,394 asthma and COPD patients included in the analyses, the LABA ever-users were considerably older than never-users, but cardiovascular co-morbidity was equally prevalent (19.9% vs. 19.9%). Adjustment for cardiovascular co-morbidity status did not affect the crude risk ratio (RR) for mortality: crude RR 1.19 (95% CI 0.93–1.51) versus RR 1.19 (95% CI 0.94–1.50) after adjustment for cardiovascular co-morbidity. However, after adjustment for age (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.76–1.19), additional adjustment for cardiovascular co-morbidity status did affect the association between LABA use and mortality (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.80–1.26). Confounding variables should not be discarded based on balanced distributions among exposure groups, because residual confounding due to the omission of confounding variables from the adjustment model can be relevant

Immunomodulation by imiquimod in patients with high-risk primary melanoma.

Imiquimod is a synthetic Toll-like receptor 7 (TLR7) agonist approved for the topical treatment of actinic keratoses, superficial basal cell carcinoma, and genital warts. Imiquimod leads to an 80-100% cure rate of lentigo maligna; however, studies of invasive melanoma are lacking. We conducted a pilot study to characterize the local, regional, and systemic immune responses induced by imiquimod in patients with high-risk melanoma. After treatment of the primary melanoma biopsy site with placebo or imiquimod cream, we measured immune responses in the treated skin, sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs), and peripheral blood. Treatment of primary melanomas with 5% imiquimod cream was associated with an increase in both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in the skin, and CD4+ T cells in the SLN. Most of the CD8+ T cells in the skin were CD25 negative. We could not detect any increases in CD8+ T cells specifically recognizing HLA-A(*)0201-restricted melanoma epitopes in the peripheral blood. The findings from this small pilot study demonstrate that topical imiquimod treatment results in enhanced local and regional T-cell numbers in both the skin and SLN. Further research into TLR7 immunomodulating pathways as a basis for effective immunotherapy against melanoma in conjunction with surgery is warranted

Effectiveness of Patient Adherence Groups as a Model of Care for Stable Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract: Background: Innovative models of care are required to cope with the ever-increasing number of patients on antiretroviral therapy in the most affected countries. This study, in Khayelitsha, South Africa, evaluates the effectiveness of a group-based model of care run predominantly by non-clinical staff in retaining patients in care and maintaining adherence. Methods and Findings: Participation in ‘‘adherence clubs’’ was offered to adults who had been on ART for at least 18 months, had a current CD4 count .200 cells/ml and were virologically suppressed. Embedded in an ongoing cohort study, we compared loss to care and virologic rebound in patients receiving the intervention with patients attending routine nurse-led care from November 2007 to February 2011. We used inverse probability weighting to estimate the intention-totreat effect of adherence club participation, adjusted for measured baseline and time-varying confounders. The principal outcome was the combination of death or loss to follow-up. The secondary outcome was virologic rebound in patients who were virologically suppressed at study entry. Of 2829 patients on ART for .18 months with a CD4 count above 200 cells/ml, 502 accepted club participation. At the end of the study, 97% of club patients remained in care compared with 85% of other patients. In adjusted analyses club participation reduced loss-to-care by 57% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21–0.91) and virologic rebound in patients who were initially suppressed by 67% (HR 0.33, 95% CI = 0.16–0.67). Discussion: Patient adherence groups were found to be an effective model for improving retention and documented virologic suppression for stable patients in long term ART care. Out-of-clinic group-based models facilitated by non-clinical staff are a promising approach to assist in the long-term management of people on ART in high burden low or middleincome settings